Can Ukraine defeat Russia without US help?

By Aaron the Humanist

Arguing from a humanist standpoint, Aaron believes that, with or without US help, the world has to secure a lasting and just peace between Russia and Ukraine, not just a temporary ceasefire which could too easily break down. He has a keen interest in military matters, having served in the Army Reserve including a role within the nuclear warfare warning structure.

NATO minus the US

The first question to ask is whether NATO can survive without the US. While President Donald Trump has not formally announced a US withdrawal from NATO, his actions and statements have raised concerns about America’s commitment to the alliance. He has consistently criticised NATO allies for not meeting defence spending targets. In a December 2024 interview, he stated that the US might leave NATO if allies did not pay their bills, suggesting that continued membership depended on fair treatment and financial contributions from other member states. His rhetoric has unsettled European allies, prompting discussions about increasing their own defence spending and reducing reliance on US support. The uncertainty surrounding America’s role in NATO under Trump’s leadership has led to concerns about the alliance’s future cohesion and effectiveness.

NATO’s financial structure comprises both direct and indirect contributions from its member states. The United States plays a significant role in both categories. In 2024, the US contributed approximately 16 per cent to NATO’s annual operating budget of $3.6 billion. Also in 2024, the US accounted for approximately 64 per cent of NATO’s total defence expenditure. Its absence would require European allies to substantially increase their defence budgets to compensate. The US also provides critical capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, strategic airlift, and intelligence assets. Without US support, NATO would need to develop or source these capabilities elsewhere, which could be both time-consuming and costly. In short, the US plays a pivotal role in NATO’s financial and strategic framework. Its withdrawal would necessitate significant adjustments by other member states to maintain the alliance’s operational effectiveness.

Can Europe handle Russia alone?

Even without US involvement, NATO is not weak. In numbers, technology, production capability, and overall military strength, NATO far surpasses Russia. Economically, the contrast is staggering. For example, the combined GDP of the EU and the UK is around ten times that of Russia. So with NATO’s continued support, I believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia – even without US help. In my view, there must be no negotiation, no territorial concessions, and no “peace deals” that allow Putin to claim victory. Russia cannot be allowed to walk away, rebuild, and launch another invasion in a few years’ time.

In response to President Trump’s posturing, Britain and France are stepping up, solidifying European leadership in NATO. This has made Europe stronger, more determined, and more unified than ever before. Europe should not allow President Zelensky to be pressured into selling Ukraine’s mineral wealth in exchange for political favours. Ukraine’s resources need to be the foundation of its post-war recovery—not bargaining chips to satisfy President Trump’s avarice and ego.

Ukraine must win. I believe that it must regain all of its territory – including Crimea although I acknowledge that Crimea was part of Russia from 1784 and transferred to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954. After victory:

• Peacekeepers should be deployed to secure Ukraine’s borders while reconstruction begins.

• Ukraine should have the option to join NATO and the EU. Once those steps are complete, peacekeepers can withdraw.

• Russia’s border with Ukraine must be permanently sealed. No trade, no access, no diplomatic loopholes that allow future aggression.

How we achieve the desired goal

We continue as we are—pressuring Russia through military and economic means. The message to Putin must be unambiguous:

• Withdraw all forces by a set deadline.

• Accept complete international trade isolation until debt is paid or compliance agreed.

• Prepare to pay trillions in war reparations to rebuild Ukraine, or else sanctions will continue.

The UN should establish a new precedent: if any nation invades another without provocation, it will be held financially responsible for every bridge, every power station, and every home destroyed. There should be no more impunity for aggressors. The world must stand together. Nations that seek global trade, friendship, and aid must align with fundamental principles of sovereignty and justice.